Mexico’s Public Debt to Reach 56.4% of GDP by 2030, México Evalúa Says
México Evalúa says Mexico's public debt will keep growing, to 56.4% of GDP by 2030, and that 96 of every 100 pesos in 2027 revenue is already committed.
Mexico’s public debt will keep rising as a share of the economy, from 54% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 to 55% in 2027 and 56.4% in 2030, according to an analysis by México Evalúa reported by El Universal. The organization used the government’s own projections and says the primary surplus planned for 2027 is too small to stop the debt from growing.
Its study, “10 puntos de las finanzas públicas del Paquete Económico 2027” (10 points on public finances in the 2027 budget package), compares the federal accounts to a credit card on which the holder pays less than the minimum needed to keep the balance from climbing. The comparison landed during Buen Fin, Mexico’s annual discount weekend, when card spending is high.
How far the 2027 plan falls short
A primary surplus is what the government collects minus what it spends before paying interest on its debt. México Evalúa says the surplus in the 2027 plan does not cover the amount needed to hold debt steady against GDP. To start bringing the ratio down, it says, the government would need a surplus more than triple the one it has proposed.
The group also ran thousands of simulations with different paths for growth, inflation, the exchange rate and interest rates. In those runs it found a 48.4% probability that debt passes 60% of GDP in 2030, above the official forecast.
Its doubts about the official numbers rest on the record. Between 2008 and 2025, the public deficit came in above the government’s target in 12 of 18 years, including each of the six most recent, the study says.
What it means for public services
Debt payments already weigh on the budget. México Evalúa estimates the financial cost of the debt at 1.66 trillion pesos in 2027, money that cannot go to other needs.
By its count, 96 of every 100 pesos the government expects to collect next year are already committed to pensions, debt payments, payroll, transfers and other required spending. Of 9.16 trillion pesos in projected revenue, only four pesos of every 100 would be left for the government to decide how to use. That is 2 mil 403 pesos per resident, in the study’s figures.
The free margin was 1.48 trillion pesos in 2018. México Evalúa says it has since fallen 78% in real terms, because the government’s commitments grew faster than its income.
In 2027, spending on pensions and debt interest would equal 10.3% of GDP. Education, health, rule of law and physical infrastructure together would get 9.4% of GDP.
What could force cuts
The study names two risks: tax collection falling short of its goals, and more financial support for Pemex (the state oil company). In either case, México Evalúa says, the government would have to borrow more or cut other parts of the budget, including health care, education and security.
Source: El Universal
